Knowing the odds – its all in the preparation!

Author: Simon Dexter

If someone told you that playing poker was just like being a politician or bookmaker, you might start to wonder where they came from, but the belief does have some merit.

A good friend of mine works behind the scenes compiling a variety of sports betting odds for one of the country’s largest bookmakers. It’s an intriguing task which demands an in-depth knowledge of the market in which you’re dealing, especially when an unusual event or situation arises.

“That’s when traders and market makers start looking at each other,” he tells me, “a time when everyone is weighing up how much is at stake and how much we can lay off to minimise our risks. All bookies do it. It’s just like playing poker, or being a politician.”

My pal’s closing comment may puzzle some online poker players, but he is absolutely correct. Calculating odds is an integral part of playing poker and without getting overly mathematical (or political – we’ve had enough this week, surely?), there are several type of poker-related odds of which players must be aware.

Poker’s most basic form of odds relate to hand rankings; they could be called fixed odds, although they shorten as a hand progresses.

For example, imagine your poker hand consists of a 6c and 10c. Do you fold and wait for the next hand or consider the options for a straight or even a straight flush?

Both are possibilities, although there is a much greater chance of receiving a straight than there is of a straight flush. How much of a difference is quite staggering. The probability of being dealt a straight poker hand is 250/1; the chance of getting a straight flush is 72,200/1. Your decision to fold, check or raise depends upon your poker strategy and how much of a gambler you really are.

It is essential to be familiar with the odds of being dealt any poker hand as it continually determines your decision making. For example, you have a 12/5 chance of landing any pair but a colossal 650,000/1 chance of hitting a royal flush.

A different set of odds come into play following the flop, especially when there is a possibility of improving your hand and making a strong one on the turn or the river, but how do you calculate the odds on getting that sought after poker hand?

First, you must count the number of outs you have. Let’s say you’re holding Qs, Js and the flop shows Kd, 10h, 7c. In this example, your outs are 4 aces and 4 nines, or eight outs in total.

To calculate your percentage of hitting an out on the next card, you multiply the number of outs by two and add one. In this situation, with eight outs, you have a 17% chance (or just under 6/1) of hitting on the turn.

Okay, so then what? Your next step is to calculate the pot odds, a fairly simple, but a hugely important exercise if you are to be successful in an online poker game.

Pot odds is the amount of money in the pot divided by the amount of money it will cost you to continue in the hand. If there is 0 in the pot and it costs you to call, you’re getting pot odds of 150/15, or 10/1. The higher the ratio, the better your pot odds are. In this instance, it’s a sure-fire call; just like bookies and politicians, the better poker players can make these calculations on the hoof.

Domestic politics and politicians have been to the fore this week and it’s noticeable just how well prepared they have been to deal with a succession of questions, many of which have emanated from left field. Their respective performances provided one important lesson for poker players of all abilities, keen to improve their poker game.

The old adage, “Fail to prepare, prepare to fail” is applicable to many walks of life, but in his 1984 book, the modestly-entitled Poker Wisdom of a Champion, Doyle Brunson, generally assumed to be one of the greatest-ever poker players, explained why it is relevant to wannabe poker players too.

Brunson maintains that poker players “would do well to examine themselves carefully before every game.” Playing in the wrong frame of mind, he asserts, can attract unnecessary pressure and lead to expensive mistakes.

It may have been written more than twenty years ago, but Brunson’s words and pre-poker game checklist are equally applicable today.

Poker Wisdom of a Champion is worth reading, but I have summarised a handful of Brunson’s points as with hindsight, several of them appear as applicable to would-be politicians as they are to poker players.

According to Brunson, it is vital that before starting, players realise they could be in for a long haul – if you haven’t had enough sleep, then don’t enter an online poker tournament. Fair enough. He then asks, “Is there something else you would rather be doing?” If the answer is ‘yes’, you should not play online poker. A succession of questions follow that form the basis of ‘Texas Dolly’s’ own checklist, each of which must be answered honestly before he sits down to play. They’re worth noting, irrespective of your ability at the poker table.

Are you physically well? Are you so mad at someone that it’s likely to disturb your concentration? Are drugs or alcohol likely to interfere with your play? Are you feeling emotionally battered? A quarrel with your wife or girlfriend before a game is not ideal preparation for a game which relies upon mental agility.

Finally, Brunson poses the most important question: Do you feel as though you’re going to win? A positive answer to this can ensure you’re prepared to overcome whatever pressures you’re bound to encounter during a heated online poker game. “If it looks like a good game and you survive the checklist, then sit down and do some serious winning. Otherwise, save your energy for tomorrow,” he concludes. It’s great advice for dealing with poker’s inevitable ‘on the hoof’ pressure – and with the political variety too.

Tags: poker odds, Poker Strategy, Poker tells, Poker Tournaments

This entry was posted on Saturday, July 28th, 2007 at 11:04 am and is filed under Poker Tips.